trading records----every trade is recorded in this table, even if i didn't update blog post

Monday, December 14, 2009

今次美元反彈

相信為短期.
深信美元會持續弱勢.

對黃金/原油的上升趨勢好有信心.

Sunday, December 6, 2009

大環境小投資:杜拜危機緩和黃金續領風騷(潘國光)

http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/template/apple/art_main.php?iss_id=20091206&sec_id=15307&subsec_id=15326&art_id=13494100&cat_id=10511070&coln_id=6795054

曾一度引起環球恐慌的杜拜債務危機,隨着杜拜正着手與銀行商討重組債務,以及阿布扎比表態作出「有限度」拯救 後,全球股市瞬即反彈,恒指從 11月 27日的 21134大幅反彈。雖然執筆時恒指出現調整,但上周五收市時仍處於 22498水平。對本港投資者而言,杜拜危機可謂來也匆匆,去也匆匆。
雖然危機暫時過去,但筆者卻認為投資者不宜就此忽視杜拜危機當中所蘊含的啟示──環球經濟仍未穩定,距各央行退市之日尚遠。

美元弱勢難扭轉



筆者認為,目前環球股市雖然自 3月左右大幅上漲,但卻絕非因為經濟全面復蘇所致。事實上,現時股市欣欣向榮的情況,很大程度是基於各央行推行寬鬆貨幣政策,聯手印鈔所衍生出來。
日本央行最近更向市場注資達 10萬億日圓,試圖刺激經濟。在目前尚未穩定的經濟情況下,相信各央行絕對不會過早退市。
觀察所得,過往每次有危機出現時,資金都會流入美元避險,而美元近日也出現了反彈。不過,如果投資者因此以為美元會擺脫弱勢,筆者恐怕積弱的美元將會叫大家失望。
一 直有留意本欄的讀者,都應該知道筆者早已看淡美元,並認為美國在高負債、高財赤、高失業及高破產率這「四高」情況下,未來 10年甚至這一代,美國都將會無法成功減債。加上各國央行大肆印鈔,相信過去曾被用作貨幣的黃金,將會重拾其「金錢本色」。最近,黃金的升勢更已由美元蔓 延至多國貨幣,包括日圓、歐元甚至澳元,加上早前印度及斯里蘭卡央行雙雙增持黃金,單以技術分析而認為金價過高者,只會坐失投資黃金的良機。

下季見 1350美元

筆者認為,各國央行(特別是新興市場的 央行)將會紛紛增持黃金。黃金的強勢不但無法扭轉,更會越走越強。筆者早前曾認為 2010年底前,金價可見每盎斯 1600美元(詳情請翻閱 11月 22日之評論)。不過,在目前金價的強勁勢頭下,筆者認為在明年第一季末左右,金價就有機會上升至 1350美元;而 1600美元的目標價,不用待至明年底,相信在明年第三季末之前就有可能達到了。
為了迎接「黃金時代」的降臨,筆者早已不斷增持黃金,奉勸各位讀者也應及早準備,切勿只作壁上觀而令他朝懊悔不已。

富邦銀行(香港)第一副總裁兼投資策略及研究部主管 潘國光

Sunday, November 29, 2009

How and Why China Will Flood the Gold Market

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/3331

As you read this, the Chinese government is doing an extraordinary thing. . .something nearly unheard of in the modern world.

It is encouraging citizens to put at least 5% of their savings into precious metals.

Saturday, November 28, 2009

0.163hk 英皇國際

前兩日從期貨戶口掉曬d$$出來買163,今日見到期指低位(21000點)和期金103x都無$$買,好慘!!(仲有$74期油添呀!)
163,一定要升呀~~

Friday, November 13, 2009

每逢調整入期指的數量

大家看過這個blog都知道我大概每跌100點撈一次期指.
保險點的方法是,
e.g.今日11月13日,前日恒指見完高位22643之後,昨日牛牛皮皮, 跌200點,依然是高位,所以我叫各位不要高追.
昨晚道指跌93點,今日恒指勢跌,跌到22100點左右可以入市,再每跌100點撈.
點撈法?

簡單來說,當你有能力買20張小期,可以在牛皮市這樣做:
22100 買1張
22000 買1張
21900 買2張
21800 買2張
21700 買2張
21600 買3張
多數調整day2,開始已經會跌幾百點
e.g.21300 買4張
21200 買4 張
(再跌就....PK喇,但我覺得要跌穿50天線是頗有難度的.)

概念大概是這樣.
如果調整至22180停,掉頭回升,手上就只有6張,好似賺的不夠多; 不過upside就是,假如再跌的話,仲有彈藥撈低.

**市況大幅波動時,將隔100點的策略改為隔幾百點先撈一次.

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Sunday, November 8, 2009

<蘋果日報>大環境小投資:金價升非單靠美滙套息交易(潘國光)

央行投行補倉

近日末日博士魯賓尼與商品大王羅杰斯在媒體隔空罵戰,前者認為美國若不及早退市,美滙套息交易勢將形成資產泡沫,言語間暗示金價泡沫正在出現。羅杰斯則認為金價沒有泡沫存在,未來 10年可升見 2000美元(下同),卻被魯賓尼稱為「廢話」。
筆者認為當前的金價強勢,不是純粹建立於美滙套息交易之上。在過去美滙偶然反彈時,金價卻仍屢創新高,升勢明顯跑在美滙之先,而且正蔓延至兌各主要貨幣。事實上,金價在過去一段長時間兌全球貨幣都持續攀升,因此毋須借助美滙套息交易概念來延續升勢。
儲 存黃金沒有利息收入,因此過去幾年美、歐央行借出大量黃金予各大投資機構,一方面可賺息,另方面變相鼓勵投行大量沽空黃金期貨來遏抑金價,並將所得資金投 放於其他資產市場,過程本身正正是一種套息交易。然而,金價近期明顯突破 1000元關後,央行及投行都忙於補倉,因此,黃金兌各大資產實際上已進入了恐慌性的「拆短倉潮」。


印度央行以平均價 1045元向 IMF買入其 400噸的一半沽金量,另一半料已落入包括中國在內的新興國家手上。中國及印度為文明古國,是最明白黃金內在價值的兩大民族,印度央行的 1045元買入價,料將成為金價的心理支持位。由於全球實金供應有限,因此其他央行或投資機構,未來將越來越難像印度般一次過大手增持實金,投資者勢將轉 為增持金礦及礦業股。筆者於本欄 10月 11日的文章中已表明,金價正展開新一輪升勢,飆升過後估計金價未來數星期將在 1065至 1125元區間整固,明年首季或之前料可升達 1250元,明年年底可望逼近 1600元。

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

駿威汽車(203)

之前聽win師傅推介買了一些駿威汽車(203) @ 3.6675
長揸.
近期興"利益申報"呀嘛,同期指無關.

Friday, October 9, 2009

期金分不到段

期金按金貴,volatility又好大.

每次揸一張就嫌少,放左就無. 但揸兩張就嫌多.

等黃金囘調, 可能會買番紙黃金.
我真系好怕無得分段.

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

兩個現象-後記

當人人都說會大調整/勢淡的時候,就是調整完結時?

10/5收市: 20,429.07
10/6收市: 20,811.53
10/7上午 10:06 HKT: 21,110.920

Monday, October 5, 2009

兩個現象

期指上周在「十.一」假期後大跌,失守主要支持位 20300及 50日線,觸發另一輪沽壓,以 20261低收,全周急挫 665點,低水 114點。

這幾天幾乎所有報紙雜誌報導都說會調整至19200水平.
雖然我trading的經驗一年都未到,但是每次人人都話調整的時候,就是調整完結的時候.
又看看今次中不中.

第二個現象就是,當所有報紙雜誌報導都在說黃金會點升點升至$1200,封面都是"金碧輝煌"的時候, (多數都是金價剛剛過$1000大關), 就是平期金倉的最好時機.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

一點分享

很多人問我我每次trade幾多張期指。
這個問題我可以回答,但對於每個讀者未必有參考價值,因為每個人的cash flow position和風險承受能力都不一樣。

我每個trade會trade 1-3張小期指,雖然交易費貴D,不過你看我每次大市調整都都可以分好多好多段買入,不怕好快用完彈藥,又一定撈到底。

跌少少就買1-2張小期,跌到支持位就買2-3張。

我覺得現在是牛市,市況會以大漲小回為基調。

其實我看2010年HSI保守估計會上25,000點。如果現在hold住這個價位的話(21,000),會有4,000點進賬。而且HSI應該點點點都跌不穿19,200,所以最多輸不夠2000點 (less than 10% of 21,000點)。贏面好大。

我覺得海嘯後是個可遇不可求的機遇,一定要食盡今次recovery。

今次手上那堆9月小期指,我會轉倉至12月,長揸。

Friday, September 25, 2009

緊追財經新聞

明報
B09 | 創富理財 | 投資名人 | By 龍彩霞
2009-09-25



炒金炒油炒期指袁彌明:緊追財經新聞



投資界有不少名人,大家熟悉的可能是巴菲特或彼得林治等,商品要數有「商品大王」之稱的羅傑斯(Jim Rogers)。袁彌明(Erica)話會參考羅傑斯的投資建議,認為投資大師會看到一般投資者未有留意到的因素,但跟投資大師投資,也要找一個適合自己的投資理念,好像投資者短炒,便不宜跟巴菲特,因為他持股長達多年。

袁彌明日常主要炒金、油、外幣及期指,所以對羅傑斯發表投資見解較為留意。當然自己也要研究,炒金時,也會留意美元及息口走勢,買賣期指更會留意美股期貨及A 股市場,因為港股很受其他市場影響,掌握更多其他市場走勢變化,對炒期指致勝機會更高。

準時上網睇市訪問不忘落盤袁彌明予人的觀感是「小辣椒」,放在她的投資上確十分貼切,在訪問當天她準時在兩點半開電腦,不是無聊上網,而是看港股下午開市情况。她一邊接受訪問,一邊不忘落盤,便可見她對自己投資組合非常「上心」。

她坦言: 「現時存款息率低得要命,你不投資怎抗通脹,如果你有錢可以買樓,但資金有限一定是投資股票,以爭取回報。」袁彌明在 美國修讀經濟,對經濟有一定認識,她說投資不可以純看經濟數據,全球一體化,好像港股除受美股影響,也很受內地股市影響。她會看美國道指期貨及歐洲市况, 還有日經指數,內地股市,甚至美元的走勢也會留意。她會將所有需要看的資料放在一起,研究各國指數及貨幣與期指相關性。

看淡美元看好復蘇買期金期油她在金價每盎司1015 美元時買入期金,預計金價會升至1021 美元(見表2)。主要是因為看淡美元,「美國政府不斷印銀紙,美元必弱,到時加上通脹,黃金還有排升。近期也在每桶64 美元買入期油,主要看經濟好了,油價自然需求大,你看中國有13 億人口,經濟發展那麼快,對油需求自然上升,我都看好油。」不過,有時候也會看錯市,袁彌明會 認輸,入市時便定下止蝕位。雖然,有時候做生意或者做主持,難以每分鐘留意市况走勢,只要定下止蝕位及止賺位,便可以切實執行。平日在港股開市及上午交易 時段盡量也會留意走勢,可以進行即日買賣。近期她留意A 股及H 股的差價,若兩者溢價拉闊及收窄,也會對市况有啟示。

了解大勢留意國際新聞

她坦言,投資一定要清楚投資大勢,財經新聞必須留意,還應留意國際新聞,她表示,有時候政治局勢會對經濟有影響,不得不留意。

如果看好股市前景,可趁調整時分段吸納,好像她看好港股,若出現調整,便可每隔100 點便吸納一張期指,只要不買即月期指,便可避開要被迫平倉的風險。

Monday, September 7, 2009

蘋果日報 期指戰況by寶維

看了差不多一年期指和期指專欄,總覺得他特別準。
大家可以每日開始前參考他的專欄。

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

i still think Jim Rogers is one the best investors worldwide

on August 16, 2009

He said something about the Chinese Stock Market

"The chinese stock market has doubled over the last 9 or 10 months and I don`t like to jump to a train that is moving that fast. So, I am not getting involved."

There was no one saying so during the surge.

Friday, May 29, 2009

sell in May?

sell in May=sell in end of May...not during May
大家小心。
同意青姐說,看淡但不要做淡。

Thursday, May 21, 2009

策略

開分段始吸納9月小期指。day trade就trade即月。

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

time to short oil

$60 is just too high for the current economic outlook.

Saturday, April 4, 2009

IMF to sell Gold

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/93b93034-2035-11de-a1df-00144feabdc0.html


Over the week, CBOT May soyabeans rose 7.1 per cent to $9.82 a bushel while CBOT May corn gained 3.4 per cent at $4.00 a bushel and CBOT May wheatincreased 9 per cent at $5.53 a bushel. Gold traded around $900 a troy ounceon Friday, off 0.3 per cent on the day and 2.3 per cent lower on the week as gains for equity markets hit sentiment towards bullion.

On Thursday, gold sank to its lowest level of the week at $893.70 after the G20 agreed to ask the IMF to bring forward bullion sales to finance help for the poor.


The IMF plans to sell 403 tonnes of gold but speculation that additional sales were to be considered was played down by analysts. The sale of the IMF gold is likely to be conducted under the Central Bank Gold Agreement, which is due to expire on September 26.

John Reade of UBS said that because of the limited time before the expiry of the CBGA and the legislative hurdles that needed to be cleared (including a US act of Congress), it was almost guaranteed that a third five-year central bank gold agreement (CBGA3) would be announced, probably at the IMF spring meetings where more detail on the planned gold sale would materialise.

John Reade of UBS said the IMF gold was likely to be sold during the next three years (by 2011) but the sales were “almost insignificant” compared with changes taking place in investment, jewellery demand and scrap supply.

“We continue to forecast that gold will average $1,000 an ounce for 2009 and $900 an ounce for 2010, said Mr Reade, “although we continue to warn of upside risks to our forecast for 2010 if investors become worried about the prospects for higher long-term inflation.”

Monday, March 30, 2009

唉。。始終沒有跌破11,000點·

最近更升至14000水平。
跌破11,000可能是我太貪心。
但我始終認為熊市未完,未來兩個月將會再有調整。

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

就快可以買期指

跌破11000買下月期指。

Thursday, February 26, 2009

sorry最近忙到癡線

完全沒時間看市,D金一日跌咁多都唔系好知。
不過無緊要,金市肯定在牛市當中。
最遲美國三月公布業績時,黃金一定會上番。

Sunday, February 22, 2009

回顧《我不是股神》預測


2009年01月05日 星期一寫道 (www.ericayuen.com):

2009年預測

黃金:三個月內見$1000,在高位持續增長 (現時:US$870)--->到價:上星期五收$1002

油價:短期(3個月內)回落至$34左右,年底前會升至$60水平 (現時:US$46水平)--->到價:上星期四,期油見$34.54

恒指:短期(3個月內)回落至13000水平。年中抽頭往上。(現時:15300點水平)---->到價:hsi 上星期五收12699

Dow:2009無運行,前半年有機會再有大銀行倒閉。下半年債市再爆。(現時:9000點水平)---->準:dow 跌破去年低位,上星期五收7365

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

換歐羅@1.265

兌港幣9.86左右,遲D去paris shopping用

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

不再長揸

頂,次次長揸都輸死
例子:
872入的金,早前跌落808, 死守番875平倉,勁險。
922入的金,前幾日又跌落892,險。
46入的油,長揸呀嘛,47.5不平倉,倒跌到現在的37.97

本來長揸是爲了capture full range growth,但是現在市況實在太不穩定,還是即日、幾日鮮好了。

勸大家

就算今日匯控(0005)大跌,都不要亂入。
今次跟上次不同,隨時不懂反彈。

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

why gold rises despite of US dolar strengthens recently?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/855783f6-ebd8-11dd-8838-0000779fd2ac.html

Short View: Gold glistens once more

By John Authers

Published: January 26 2009 18:47 | Last updated: January 26 2009 18:47

Gold is glistening once more, even though the dollar is rising. For the past two years, gold was an almost perfect inverse of the dollar, gaining whenever the US currency weakened.

This made sense, as gold is traditionally seen as a store of value. Investors would hedge against a falling dollar by buying more gold. But this meant that gold fell in the latter half of last year, in tandem with the rising dollar, despite the kind of extreme uncertainty that would normally prompt people to buy gold. The dollar rose as US investors retreated from risky investments and brought their money home. Gold fell as the dollar rose.

That relationship has ended. Gold is up 14 per cent in the past two weeks, and 34 per cent since it hit a low in October, in spite of a rising dollar.

Inflation offers a plausible explanation. Late last year there was a full-blown deflation scare (which would be bad for gold). That is diminishing a little; prices of US index-linked bonds now imply the market expects inflation to average 0.77 per cent over the next 10 years. This is still low by historical standards, but is up significantly from November, when they briefly signalled outright deflation.

It seems premature to worry about rising inflation, as strong deflationary forces are at work in the world economy. But gold’s rise may show that traders now think the deflation scare was overdone, and sensed an opportunity to profit.

All of this views gold in dollar terms, in which gold is about 25 per cent above its peak from the last great bull market in the metal in 1980. In yen terms, gold is still barely half its 1980 level – which might imply that there could be more gold demand to come from Japanese investors.

And in sterling terms, gold is double its 1980 peak – which implies either great worries about returning inflation in the UK, or an overdone collapse of confidence in the pound.

Thursday, January 22, 2009

呀,昨天其實還買了

匯控(0005)@$55.3,已經預備了一筆錢,再跌會再撈。

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

out of town

have been out of town for almost week. sorry for the infrequent updates as i had no internet connection in the past two nights.
will be back on wed night!

Monday, January 12, 2009

1/13---1/21離港往日本拍攝,會儘量update blog

不會trade恒指,但會繼續trade期金、期油和dow會。

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

中午收市前與全日低位平了

@15350

還有一張14600沽的未平。 (當它不存在)

Monday, January 5, 2009

再沽期指@15255

2009年預測

黃金:三個月內見$1000,在高位持續增長 (現時:US$870)

油價:短期(3個月內)回落至$34左右,年底前會升至$60水平 (現時:US$46水平)

恒指:短期(3個月內)回落至13000水平。年中抽頭往上。(現時:15300點水平)

Dow:2009無運行,前半年有機會再有大銀行倒閉。下半年債市再爆。(現時:9000點水平)


strategy:
1) 今天買入黃金
2)油價見$36左右買入
3)恒指見13,000買入
4)今天開始沽Dow


我不能解釋預測,所以不要問我點解。

Thursday, January 1, 2009