trading records----every trade is recorded in this table, even if i didn't update blog post

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

why gold rises despite of US dolar strengthens recently?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/855783f6-ebd8-11dd-8838-0000779fd2ac.html

Short View: Gold glistens once more

By John Authers

Published: January 26 2009 18:47 | Last updated: January 26 2009 18:47

Gold is glistening once more, even though the dollar is rising. For the past two years, gold was an almost perfect inverse of the dollar, gaining whenever the US currency weakened.

This made sense, as gold is traditionally seen as a store of value. Investors would hedge against a falling dollar by buying more gold. But this meant that gold fell in the latter half of last year, in tandem with the rising dollar, despite the kind of extreme uncertainty that would normally prompt people to buy gold. The dollar rose as US investors retreated from risky investments and brought their money home. Gold fell as the dollar rose.

That relationship has ended. Gold is up 14 per cent in the past two weeks, and 34 per cent since it hit a low in October, in spite of a rising dollar.

Inflation offers a plausible explanation. Late last year there was a full-blown deflation scare (which would be bad for gold). That is diminishing a little; prices of US index-linked bonds now imply the market expects inflation to average 0.77 per cent over the next 10 years. This is still low by historical standards, but is up significantly from November, when they briefly signalled outright deflation.

It seems premature to worry about rising inflation, as strong deflationary forces are at work in the world economy. But gold’s rise may show that traders now think the deflation scare was overdone, and sensed an opportunity to profit.

All of this views gold in dollar terms, in which gold is about 25 per cent above its peak from the last great bull market in the metal in 1980. In yen terms, gold is still barely half its 1980 level – which might imply that there could be more gold demand to come from Japanese investors.

And in sterling terms, gold is double its 1980 peak – which implies either great worries about returning inflation in the UK, or an overdone collapse of confidence in the pound.

Thursday, January 22, 2009

呀,昨天其實還買了

匯控(0005)@$55.3,已經預備了一筆錢,再跌會再撈。

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

out of town

have been out of town for almost week. sorry for the infrequent updates as i had no internet connection in the past two nights.
will be back on wed night!

Monday, January 12, 2009

1/13---1/21離港往日本拍攝,會儘量update blog

不會trade恒指,但會繼續trade期金、期油和dow會。

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

中午收市前與全日低位平了

@15350

還有一張14600沽的未平。 (當它不存在)

Monday, January 5, 2009

再沽期指@15255

2009年預測

黃金:三個月內見$1000,在高位持續增長 (現時:US$870)

油價:短期(3個月內)回落至$34左右,年底前會升至$60水平 (現時:US$46水平)

恒指:短期(3個月內)回落至13000水平。年中抽頭往上。(現時:15300點水平)

Dow:2009無運行,前半年有機會再有大銀行倒閉。下半年債市再爆。(現時:9000點水平)


strategy:
1) 今天買入黃金
2)油價見$36左右買入
3)恒指見13,000買入
4)今天開始沽Dow


我不能解釋預測,所以不要問我點解。

Thursday, January 1, 2009